The Indian rupee reached a one-month high as oil prices declined and foreign inflows increased. The Reserve Bank of India is expected to maintain current interest rates this week. Analysts anticipate a cautious policy statement from the central bank regarding inflation. Oil prices fell significantly after the US President sought a deal with Iran. Foreign investors returned to Indian stocks, and bond yields saw a slight increase.
Maruti Suzuki shares fell over 2% after the automaker reported an 11% YoY decline in June-quarter standalone net profit, even as revenue rose 36% and sales volumes hit a record high. While Nomura retained a Neutral rating citing margin risks, Motilal Oswal reiterated its Buy call, expecting market share gains, easing input costs and strong earnings growth to support the stock.
Brent crude futures fell $4.37, or 5%, to $83.56 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined $4.63, or 5.5%, to $80 a barrel.
James believes derivatives positioning and options data suggest traders are shifting their bullish expectations higher, with the market attempting to establish a new support base around 24,400-24,500. A decisive move above 24,800, he says, could pave the way for the benchmark index to extend its rally towards the 25,000 mark, provided banking stocks also join the advance.
Experts suggest a moderately bullish strategy for Nifty options with defined risk and reward. Jio Financial Services and Hero MotoCorp are recommended buys with specific price targets. Ashok Leyland and Havells India also present buying opportunities based on technical breakouts. Bharti Airtel and Sona BLW Precision Forgings show strong upward momentum. Analysts advise a buy-on-dips approach for Nifty and Bank Nifty indices.
Economists anticipate the Reserve Bank of India will maintain its current interest rate at 5.25 percent. The central bank is also expected to keep its neutral monetary policy stance for the fourth review. Some economists foresee a potential rate hike in the second half of fiscal year twenty twenty-seven. Inflation forecasts for fiscal year twenty twenty-seven are divided among surveyed economists.
Exchanges will change how stock closing prices are decided for F&O stocks. A new closing auction will determine the final price after normal trading ends. This auction aims to reduce the impact of last-minute large orders. Mutual funds will benefit from more efficient execution of their closing trades. Active traders and proprietary desks will see the biggest impact from these changes.
Indian equities are expected to extend recent gains in August, supported by foreign fund inflows. Analysts anticipate a continued upward move for the Nifty after recent consolidation periods. Foreign institutional investors have turned positive, marking their first net purchases since February. While geopolitical uncertainties remain, the unwinding of AI trade is seen as positive. Select large caps and specific sectors like NBFCs, pharma, metals, and realty may perform well.
Markets extended their winning streak on Friday, supported by encouraging quarterly business updates. Nifty strengthened its bullish structure by surpassing the 200-day EMA, positioning for further gains. ITC reported a net profit drop while revenue rose, and Maruti Suzuki saw a net profit decline. Sun Pharma reported net profit growth, and PNB has no immediate plans to monetize subsidiaries.
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