From April 1, investors face key regulatory and tax changes including higher STT on derivatives, removal of interest deduction on dividend income, revised buyback taxation, new ETF valuation norms, tighter sovereign gold bond tax rules and a structured algo trading framework, all of which could impact trading costs, returns and market behaviour.
Indian stock markets experienced a significant surge today, with Sensex and Nifty climbing over 2.5%. This optimism is fueled by hopes of de-escalation in the Iran-US-Israel conflict, following statements from leaders suggesting a potential end to hostilities. Global markets also saw a strong rally, mirroring the positive sentiment and contributing to the robust performance on Indian bourses.
Nifty50 has delivered zero returns over the past two years and is now at a critical juncture amid rising geopolitical tensions, a weakening rupee, and surging crude prices. While domestic investors continue to buy, foreign investors have pulled out a record $13 billion in March, signaling a shift to safer assets. Adding to concerns, Goldman Sachs has downgraded Indian equities to “marketweight” and cut its Nifty target.
The Iran conflict has triggered an unprecedented shock in global oil markets, disrupting critical supply routes and production. Analysts have sharply raised 2026 price forecasts, with Brent crude now projected to average $82.85 per barrel, a nearly 30% increase from February. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are the primary driver, forcing output cuts and exacerbating shortages.
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Indian 10-year government security yields have surged to a near two-year high, closing FY25 at 7.03% despite a policy rate cut. This rise, attributed to bond oversupply and geopolitical risks from the West Asia conflict, is expected to continue with an upward bias in FY27 due to ongoing conflict and future supply pressures.
Foreign investors bought fewer Indian securities in FY26. Outflows increased as West Asia conflict escalated. Economists predict muted flows in FY27 due to the Gulf conflict and a weaker rupee. Concerns over government finances also impacted sentiment. A major trigger like bond index inclusion is needed for significant inflows.
Global markets surged Tuesday, led by Wall Street, as investor confidence returned amid hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East. Reports suggest a potential shift in US strategy towards diplomacy, easing fears of oil supply disruptions. Indian markets are also expected to open higher, anticipating a relief rally after recent declines.
Warren Buffett remains actively involved in Berkshire Hathaway investment decisions despite stepping down as CEO. He collaborates with Greg Abel, maintains a cautious market outlook, and oversees significant liquidity deployment in Treasury securities.
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