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Trading Day: Resilience trumps uncertainty

Updated at : 2025-05-03 15:25:02

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Despite a surprising U.S. economic contraction in the first quarter, global markets showed resilience, with stocks rising and volatility easing. Positive Eurozone GDP and a strong U.S. jobs report boosted sentiment, overshadowing corporate concerns about tariffs. The Bank of Japan s lowered outlook had limited impact.

President Trump acknowledged the U.S. economy is in a "transition period," expressing optimism for future performance despite concerns about a potential short-term recession. He cited strong employment figures and reiterated his call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

Call it the tale of two markets. On one side, heavyweight Reliance Industries — India’s most valued stock — roared 9% higher, buoyed by a Q4 earnings glow and a fresh wave of FII love.

GoalFi suggests a balanced investment approach, mirroring an IPL team, with financials as the anchor due to strong credit growth. Consumer-facing sectors lead the top order, driven by demand revival, while manufacturing and capital goods offer mid-overs acceleration. Select digital and tourism themes provide tactical opportunities for match-winning returns, creating a portfolio for diverse market conditions.

According to a recent report by Nuvama Institutional Equities, the share of high-value properties rose to 25% in April 2025, up from 22% in April 2024 and 19% in March 2025, signaling a clear resurgence in the premium housing segment.

The crypto market is experiencing a bullish surge, with Bitcoin nearing $100,000 after surpassing Google s market cap briefly. Altcoins like Ethereum and Solana are also showing strength. This rally is fueled by a weakening US economy, increased institutional buying, and positive on-chain metrics.

Contrary to the popular "Sell in May and go away" adage, data suggests Indian stock markets perform better from May to October, averaging 7.6% returns compared to November-April s 4%. Analyzing a decade of trends reveals May, June, and July historically show strong probabilities of positive returns.

India s aerospace and defense sector shows significant growth. A major deal with France for Rafale-M jets strengthens national security and domestic manufacturing. The defense budget is increasing, creating opportunities for Indian companies. Defense exports are rising, with ambitious targets set for 2047. Hindustan Aeronautics and Bharat Electronics are well-positioned for growth. The sector presents a long-term investment opportunity.

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In 2025 s turbulent market, Warren Buffett s Berkshire Hathaway thrived by holding substantial cash reserves. While tech giants suffered losses, Buffett s strategy of exiting the 2024 bull market and investing in safe US Treasury Bills yielded significant returns. His approach, characterized by patience and a focus on value, contrasts sharply with chasing fleeting trends.

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Kotak Mahindra Bank Q4 results: Private lender Kotak Mahindra Bank on Saturday reported its March quarter results for the financial year 2025, posting a 14% YoY dip in its standalone profit after tax (PAT) at Rs 3,551.74 crore. However, the net interest income (NII) grew by 4.5% YoY to Rs 7,283.57 crore.

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