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Nomura expects the Indian rupee to strengthen to 84/$1 by December 2025, driven by a weaker dollar index, foreign inflows, easing inflation, and RBI reserve accumulation. Improved investor sentiment and India s EM appeal support this outlook.

Wall Street shares saw gains on Wednesday. There is optimism about US-China trade talks. Donald Trump said he would not fire Jerome Powell. This eased market worries. First-quarter earnings season is in progress. Tesla shares rose despite a profit drop. Boeing s shares increased after reporting a smaller loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all rose.

The dollar stabilized on Thursday after a surge, following positive signals from President Trump regarding the Federal Reserve and potential easing of China tariffs. It rebounded against the yen, reaching 143.25. Treasury Secretary Bessent s comments on currency targets and trade with China further influenced the dollar s recovery.

Oil prices saw a slight increase after an earlier dip, influenced by discussions on potential OPEC+ output hikes and conflicting signals from the U.S. regarding tariffs on China. While some reports suggest tariff reductions to encourage trade talks, others deny any unilateral easing. Simultaneously, U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are being closely monitored for potential impacts on oil supply, despite recent U.S.

Global markets experienced mixed signals as investors grappled with President Trump s inconsistent stances on tariffs and Federal Reserve leadership. Asian shares dipped slightly, contrasting with Wall Street s gains fueled by hopes of easing U.S.-China trade tensions. The dollar weakened after a brief rebound, while oil prices stabilized amid discussions of potential OPEC+ output increases.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack suggests conditions support further balance sheet reductions, emphasizing patience with monetary policy amid uncertainty. She believes ample reserves exist, but a large balance sheet could encourage financial risk-taking.

UBS Group AG shifts its stance on Indian equities from bearish to neutral, citing its defensive nature amid global trade uncertainties and potential benefits from lower crude oil prices. This upgrade reflects a growing preference for domestically-oriented shares, while Hong Kong was downgraded due to tariff risks. Indonesia was upgraded to overweight, with India s fundamentals still appearing lackluster.

Benchmark indices surged for the seventh consecutive session, fueled by strong buying in IT, auto, and pharma stocks. LTIMindtree shares rallied 5%, while Axis Bank fell 0.89% and Hindustan Unilever rose 1%. Analysts recommend monitoring key support and resistance levels for potential breakouts and reversals in these stocks.

Thursday s earnings announcements include Tech Mahindra, HUL, and Axis Bank. Tech Mahindra anticipates strong profit growth but muted revenue. HUL expects subdued demand and flat volume growth. Axis Bank projects mid-single-digit net interest income growth with potentially muted profitability due to loan growth and stable margins.