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Indian equities closed August with a second consecutive month of losses as Nifty fell 1.38%, pressured by U.S. tariff shocks, foreign fund outflows, and profit-taking. Despite this, strong GDP growth and upcoming GST reform talks provide potential buffers. Geopolitical developments, including Modi’s China visit, and domestic growth triggers will test whether markets can recover in September.

HSBC India warns that India’s June quarter GDP growth of 7.8% may be overstated due to low deflators, especially in services and manufacturing. Inflation adjustments risk inflating real growth. External pressures like US tariffs and GST revenue impacts pose further challenges. Economists emphasize cautious optimism and stress the need to monitor growth sustainability amid evolving fiscal and global dynamics.

Despite a weak August for D-Street, 10 BSE smallcap stocks defied the broader selloff, surging up to 55%. Names like Yatra Online, Apollo Micro Systems, and Rishabh Instruments led the month’s standout rally.

Rajesh Palviya of Axis Securities cautions that rollover trends and technical signals point to continued weakness in Nifty and Bank Nifty. With FIIs adding shorts and both indices below their 200-DMA, he expects further downside unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.

Ajay Bagga expects Indian markets may have bottomed out, citing minimal Q1 downgrades and signs of recovery. He sees the upcoming GST Council meeting and potential consumption tax cuts as critical catalysts for growth.

BSE Index Services has introduced the BSE Capital Markets Index to benchmark companies in India’s capital markets sector, aiding investors, fund managers, and institutions with transparency, sector tracking, and passive product creation.

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LEAP India plans to launch an IPO to raise Rs 2,400 crore. The IPO includes a fresh issue and an offer for sale. The company will use the funds to repay debt and for working capital. Vertical Holdings and KIA EBT Scheme are selling shareholders. The IPO also includes an employee reservation portion.

Recency bias, a common trap in investing, leads individuals to overemphasize recent events, causing them to make irrational decisions. This bias fuels panic during market downturns and euphoria during rallies, blinding investors to long-term patterns. Overcoming recency bias involves focusing on fundamentals, using long-term data, and resisting impulsive reactions to build wealth.

The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on tariffs has shifted to hints of rate cuts as growth slows, jobs weaken, and debt spirals. Political interference and fiscal strain risk undermining dollar strength, raising fears of prolonged currency weakness.

Global equities rallied on US-Russia talks, but Indian markets lagged, with FIIs turning sellers amid tariff fears, weak Q1 topline growth, and slowing consumption. Yet, GST reforms and discounted Russian oil imports may cushion the economy.

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